Proving the Business Case for the Internet of Things

Multi-billion M2M connection forecasts are ludicrous, says Beecham Research

Steve Rogerson
February 26, 2015
Some of the predictions for M2M connectivity have been described at “ludicrous” by market analyst Beecham Research. Its latest report predicts there will be almost one billion cellular M2M connections worldwide by 2020, rather than the multi-billion connections predicted by some.
“An average growth rate of nearly 30% per annum over the next few years represents both a very strong and exciting opportunity in a services market that is substantially business-to-business,” said Robin Duke-Woolley, founder and CEO of Beecham Research. “Unfortunately there are some ludicrous, multi-billion connected device forecasts around at present for M2M and IoT that betray a complete lack of understanding about how the market really works. Much faster growth rates are just not realistic in this market because enterprises do not assimilate new technologies into their business processes that quickly.”
The report looks at the rapid rise of M2M since 2013 when there were just 172 million cellular M2M connections worldwide.
“Our worldwide forecast has been constantly updated over a long period with direct, multiple contacts in all relevant countries worldwide,” said Saverio Romeo, principal analyst at Beecham Research. “As a result, we have a substantial, up-to-date database to work with, built up from usage data on application sectors and connectivity technologies.”
However, Romeo also warned about the excessive hype surrounding some current M2M forecasts. “While the M2M market is growing strongly, we have seen some excessive predictions that simply create unrealistic expectations,” he said.
The report provides a quantitative study of the M2M market globally, per region, per sector and by technology, based on M2M active sim connections, monthly M2M sim ARPU, connectivity cellular revenues and SES platform revenues. It also provides an assessment of all other connectivity technologies used for M2M applications – both fixed and wireless.